Mr. FRED's Wild Ride
Do you like roller coasters? Most people will probably say they do, but someone will inevitably ask, "What kind of roller coaster?" Well, Mr. Smarty Pants, how about the kind that makes you feel like you've lost all control over your life and any decision you make, even though you've ridden this roller coaster before and know exactly what's going to happen.
The crisis du jour is whether the entire planet is in a recession. Global stocks and equities are dropping all over the place, countries are dealing with riots, missiles, and rude neighbors with grudges, and the yield curve – the effin' Yield Curve! – is inverted like a crazy Simone Biles gymnastic move. Cue the talking heads and let the battle of economic wonks begin.
Meanwhile, the mortgage industry is having it's best year since at least 2016. Most of you are too busy to read this post because there's not enough people around to help you with all the loans you're closing. Practically every company that has something to do with mortgage lending is doing well right now. It's in stark contrast to the mainstream news headlines that suck the happiness out of you like a Nigerian scammer chatting online with a lonely divorcee.
But we all know that mortgage lending is cyclical and prone to economic calamities. While it's hard to argue with an 80+ bps drop in mortgage interest rates over the past year, a recession could put a serious damper on everyone's mood.
So make hay while the sun shines! As someone that's seen the towering highs and crushing lows of the mortgage industry (all within a 20-year span), it's gratifying to see people smiling and laughing again. But we should all rewatch The Big Short (or listen to The Giant Pool of Money for you trendy podcasters) to make sure we retain a sense of rational exuberance and balance in both our lives and our professions.
PS. FRED is not a person. It refers to the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, where most of the economic research comes from.